Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3769 MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3801 MFR 13:41 → SLC 16:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3769 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	SLC 08:08	4%	2%	0.2%	94%
OO 3865 SkyWest	MFR 13:25	SLC 16:22	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 3801 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 13:41	SLC 16:36	13%	3%	0.2%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON