Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 29–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5285 MHT 17:16 → DCA 19:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 5290 MHT 12:07 → DCA 13:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5285 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 17:16	DCA 19:15	29%	10%	1.1%	66%
OH 5179 PSA	MHT 17:24	DCA 19:21	29%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 5150 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 12:11	DCA 14:08	31%	11%	0.6%	68%
AA 5290 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 12:07	DCA 13:59	31%	11%	0.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON