Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:18 pm at Manchester); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4531 GoJet	MHT 14:56	IAD 16:53	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
G7 4520 GoJet	MHT 19:41	IAD 21:32	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MHT 14:13 → CLT 16:48AA 5661 · flown by PSA	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	7h 52m	100%	74%
American Details →	MHT 17:10 → CLT 19:40AA 5463 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	7h 00m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON