Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:36 am at Manchester); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2919 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 12:30	MCO 15:35	25%	8%	0.5%	76%
WN 3028 Southwest	MHT 15:40	MCO 18:53	28%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MHT 11:30 → BWI 13:10WN 1121	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 14:55 → MCO 17:26WN 2541	5h 56m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	MHT 13:30 → BWI 15:05WN 868	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 17:45 → MCO 20:20WN 172	6h 50m	97%	70%
American Details →	MHT 12:01 → ORD 13:52AA 3747 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 15:08 → MCO 19:03AA 2064	7h 02m	93%	67%
American Details →	MHT 17:10 → CLT 19:40AA 5463 · flown by PSA	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	7h 07m	93%	61%
American Details →	MHT 12:07 → CLT 14:36AA 5294 · flown by PSA	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 16:49 → MCO 18:44AA 2100	6h 37m	98%	59%
Southwest Details →	MHT 17:10 → BWI 18:50WN 976	55m Baltimore	BWI 19:45 → MCO 22:16WN 1066	5h 06m	93%	58%
American Details →	MHT 14:13 → CLT 16:48AA 5661 · flown by PSA	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 19:05 → MCO 21:00AA 1783	6h 47m	97%	58%
American Details →	MHT 14:54 → PHL 16:35AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont	3h 30m Philadelphia	PHL 20:05 → MCO 22:38AA 1673	7h 44m	97%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir	47m Dulles	IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463	5h 08m	65%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON