Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:34 am at Manchester); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4369 Southwest	MHT 18:55	MDW 20:34	13%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2920 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 19:00	MDW 20:30	13%	4%	0.3%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MHT 11:30 → BWI 13:10WN 1121	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 14:35 → MDW 15:51WN 1072	5h 21m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MHT 13:30 → BWI 15:05WN 868	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	4h 40m	93%	78%
Southwest Details →	MHT 17:10 → BWI 18:50WN 976	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	5h 50m	96%	72%
Southwest Details →	MHT 12:30 → MCO 15:35WN 2919	3h 01m Orlando	MCO 18:36 → MDW 20:32WN 1670	9h 02m	97%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON