Today: AA 4150 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet today AA 4150 MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3720 MHT 17:02 → ORD 18:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4150 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 07:14	ORD 09:10	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
MQ 3634 Envoy	MHT 14:02	ORD 15:53	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4400 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MHT 18:18	ORD 20:30	15%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 3747 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 12:01	ORD 13:52	15%	3%	0.5%	93%
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 17:02	ORD 18:45	20%	3%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON