Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Miami)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


MQ 3351 Envoy	MIA 21:49	AVL 23:54	12%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:40	AVL 22:47	14%	4%	0.3%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:57DL 1323	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 55m	99%	75%
American Details →	MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 52m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON