Today: MQ 4070 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–37%.

Safest bet today MQ 4070 MIA 08:32 → BNA 09:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2833 MIA 20:03 → BNA 21:26 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4070 Envoy	MIA 08:32	BNA 09:53	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 1521 American Flight history →	MIA 08:21	BNA 09:45	14%	4%	0.2%	93%
WN 2922 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 11:40	BNA 13:00	21%	4%	0.1%	63%
WN 3033 Southwest	MIA 11:45	BNA 13:07	21%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 487 American	MIA 14:33	BNA 16:01	24%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 3208 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	BNA 17:56	27%	9%	0.3%	60%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	MIA 15:29	BNA 16:52	28%	9%	0.3%	38%
AA 1721 American Flight history →	MIA 22:57	BNA 00:16	28%	10%	0.9%	49%
AA 323 American Flight history →	MIA 16:20	BNA 17:42	31%	9%	0.3%	67%
WN 4799 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 16:00	BNA 17:25	31%	6%	0.1%	31%
WN 4805 Southwest	MIA 20:01	BNA 21:24	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2096 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	BNA 23:37	33%	9%	0.9%	71%
AA 2833 American Flight history →	MIA 20:03	BNA 21:26	37%	9%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON