tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021 49m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 88% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 11m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 17m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:18 → BUR 11:55AA 1208 9h 30m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 10:49 → PHX 12:35AA 3172 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 14:41 → BUR 16:11AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 95% 71%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922 2h 40m Nashville BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461 9h 15m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:08AA 1454 1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 8h 05m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:36 → SFO 19:27UA 2810 53m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 8h 11m 73% 56%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 50m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 59m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:47 → DFW 19:58AA 2828 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 11m 37% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON