Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3147 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3147 MIA 08:43 → CHS 10:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1657 MIA 17:42 → CHS 19:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3147 American	MIA 08:43	CHS 10:35	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2948 American Flight history →	MIA 22:16	CHS 23:59	36%	9%	1.6%	59%
AA 2397 American	MIA 17:06	CHS 18:58	36%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	MIA 17:42	CHS 19:33	37%	10%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON