Today: MQ 3904 at 15:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet today MQ 3904 MIA 15:45 → CLE 18:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 363 MIA 20:45 → CLE 23:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3904 Envoy	MIA 15:45	CLE 18:50	15%	3%	0.3%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 15:31	CLE 18:38	15%	4%	0.3%	81%
F9 4135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 16:05	CLE 19:08	31%	8%	0.4%	70%
AA 363 American Flight history →	MIA 20:45	CLE 23:48	32%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON