Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2187 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2187 MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3194 MIA 17:26 → CLT 19:32 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2187 American Flight history →	MIA 06:21	CLT 08:35	10%	4%	0.5%	90%
AA 361 American Flight history →	MIA 07:50	CLT 09:54	11%	4%	0.5%	93%
AA 3004 American Flight history →	MIA 06:07	CLT 08:12	11%	4%	0.5%	95%
AA 3044 American Flight history →	MIA 08:40	CLT 10:54	12%	4%	0.4%	97%
AA 3085 American Flight history →	MIA 07:57	CLT 10:10	12%	4%	0.5%	83%
AA 3135 American	MIA 08:39	CLT 10:44	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 1337 American	MIA 09:53	CLT 11:59	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 840 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	CLT 12:05	16%	4%	0.4%	83%
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	19%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	22%	7%	1.0%	66%
AA 1212 American Flight history →	MIA 22:25	CLT 00:35	23%	6%	1.2%	59%
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:53	CLT 17:12	24%	9%	0.8%	72%
AA 2231 American	MIA 21:52	CLT 23:52	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 400 American Flight history →	MIA 17:23	CLT 19:45	28%	8%	1.2%	67%
AA 3131 American Flight history →	MIA 19:10	CLT 21:26	30%	8%	1.2%	65%
F9 3700 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 18:50	CLT 21:07	33%	10%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 1577 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	CLT 21:06	34%	7%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:26	CLT 19:32	35%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON