Today: AA 3540 at 14:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet today AA 3540 MIA 14:59 → CMH 17:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2925 MIA 12:50 → CMH 15:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3540 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 14:59	CMH 17:42	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
MQ 3745 Envoy	MIA 21:55	CMH 00:51	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4163 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 10:32	CMH 13:25	14%	3%	0.3%	89%
AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:48	CMH 22:31	14%	4%	0.5%	82%
AA 3660 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:50	CMH 22:39	15%	4%	0.5%	73%
WN 2925 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 12:50	CMH 15:35	25%	5%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON