Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4121 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4121 MIA 08:41 → CVG 11:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4115 MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4121 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 08:41	CVG 11:34	11%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 3472 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 08:42	CVG 11:22	13%	2%	0.7%	43%
AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	22%	4%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON