Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 491 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2648 MIA 19:05 → DCA 21:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	9%	3%	1.6%	93%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	14%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 2848 American	MIA 07:52	DCA 10:32	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1299 American Flight history →	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:38	16%	5%	1.3%	91%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 09:43	DCA 12:23	16%	6%	1.2%	85%
AA 1606 American Flight history →	MIA 11:59	DCA 14:44	16%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	MIA 09:59	DCA 12:37	18%	6%	1.2%	80%
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:08	DCA 14:48	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3310 American Flight history →	MIA 13:42	DCA 16:26	22%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DCA 18:13	22%	8%	1.2%	62%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	24%	8%	1.3%	74%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	25%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	27%	10%	1.2%	51%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	28%	9%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON