Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2045 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2045 MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3036 MIA 16:10 → DEN 18:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2045 United Flight history →	MIA 07:37	DEN 10:00	9%	3%	0.2%	91%
AA 1739 American Flight history →	MIA 08:57	DEN 11:19	11%	4%	0.2%	94%
AA 1310 American	MIA 09:08	DEN 11:33	13%	5%	0.2%	no record
F9 1279 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DEN 08:23	16%	6%	0.5%	85%
UA 2852 United Flight history →	MIA 15:44	DEN 18:23	19%	6%	0.5%	82%
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MIA 20:31	DEN 22:54	31%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 1292 American	MIA 20:08	DEN 22:19	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2926 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 16:20	DEN 18:40	39%	6%	0.4%	25%
WN 3036 Southwest	MIA 16:10	DEN 18:24	41%	6%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927	1h 10m Houston	HOU 07:55 → DEN 09:23WN 947	6h 13m	95%	83%
American Details →	MIA 10:05 → DFW 12:17AA 3081	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	6h 16m	80%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON