Today: DL 1468 at 13:38 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet today DL 1468 MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2649 MIA 20:45 → DTW 23:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1468 Delta Flight history →	MIA 13:38	DTW 16:53	16%	4%	0.1%	78%
DL 2548 Delta	MIA 18:41	DTW 21:40	24%	7%	0.1%	no record
DL 866 Delta Flight history →	MIA 20:26	DTW 23:42	27%	6%	0.7%	66%
AA 2649 American Flight history →	MIA 20:45	DTW 23:56	33%	8%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON