Today: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet today UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 322 MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
AA 1822 American Flight history →	MIA 08:25	EWR 11:30	9%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	EWR 11:54	9%	3%	0.4%	88%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	MIA 08:38	EWR 11:39	9%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	MIA 11:12	EWR 14:23	21%	7%	0.5%	79%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	MIA 11:29	EWR 14:41	21%	7%	0.5%	94%worse than usual
UA 1102 United	MIA 13:33	EWR 16:42	27%	11%	0.4%	no record
AA 1823 American Flight history →	MIA 13:31	EWR 16:39	28%	11%	0.5%	79%
AA 1446 American	MIA 14:25	EWR 17:38	33%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 2008 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	EWR 00:59	35%	6%	1.2%	62%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 19:55	EWR 22:53	37%	10%	0.8%	72%
UA 2691 United Flight history →	MIA 17:22	EWR 20:37	41%	13%	0.8%	56%
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:48	EWR 22:53	42%	10%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON