Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2606 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2606 MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 2230 MIA 22:15 → IAH 23:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2606 United Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	8%	4%	0.6%	100%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 3100 American	MIA 06:58	IAH 08:41	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 603 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	IAH 08:50	15%	5%	0.9%	83%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	15%	8%	0.6%	74%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:28	IAH 13:36	22%	9%	0.9%	85%
AA 1931 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	IAH 17:22	28%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 2541 American Flight history →	MIA 19:42	IAH 21:33	30%	9%	0.9%	65%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	30%	8%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON