Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3609 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3609 MIA 08:02 → JAX 09:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 416 MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3609 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 08:02	JAX 09:27	9%	2%	0.7%	97%
MQ 3672 Envoy	MIA 12:10	JAX 13:38	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2711 American	MIA 09:39	JAX 11:05	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4148 Envoy	MIA 18:50	JAX 20:16	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3953 Envoy	MIA 16:34	JAX 18:03	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3893 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:08	JAX 21:33	22%	8%	1.2%	68%
AA 3605 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 17:39	JAX 19:07	23%	8%	1.2%	49%
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	33%	11%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON