Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2428 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2428 MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1922 MIA 18:33 → JFK 21:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	9%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 1040 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	JFK 09:05	9%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:51	JFK 09:48	11%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 1051 American Flight history →	MIA 08:22	JFK 11:30	12%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1052 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	JFK 13:04	17%	3%	0.9%	83%
DL 1520 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:25	JFK 14:31	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 11:28	JFK 14:18	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:37	JFK 13:32	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	24%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	25%	5%	0.9%	64%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:59	JFK 23:21	28%	7%	0.8%	53%
AA 642 American Flight history →	MIA 14:00	JFK 17:18	31%	8%	0.8%	71%
AA 1202 American Flight history →	MIA 16:03	JFK 19:15	33%	8%	0.9%	55%
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	37%	8%	0.8%	56%
AA 1922 American Flight history →	MIA 18:33	JFK 21:45	39%	9%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON