tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:26 am at Miami)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 1490 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet today AA 1490 MIA 08:13 → LAS 10:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4551 MIA 22:15 → LAS 00:22 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time
Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1490 American MIA 08:13 LAS 10:31 12% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 2010 American Flight history → MIA 09:25 LAS 11:41 16% 5% 0.2% 93%
AA 3318 American MIA 10:08 LAS 12:34 25% 7% 0.2% no record
AA 2941 American Flight history → MIA 21:19 LAS 23:52 27% 8% 0.8% 81%
AA 1622 American MIA 20:07 LAS 22:21 28% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 3236 American Flight history → MIA 17:29 LAS 19:46 30% 10% 0.7% 61%
AA 3076 American Flight history → MIA 21:50 LAS 23:59 31% 8% 0.8% 63%
F9 4551 Frontier Flight history → MIA 22:15 LAS 00:22 38% 16% 0.8% 66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 55m Houston HOU 07:40 → LAS 08:51WN 2705 6h 41m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 7h 25m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:35 → PHX 09:19AA 1061 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 10:20 → LAS 11:46AA 1568 7h 11m 87% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON