Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 713 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 713 MIA 07:07 → LAX 09:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3328 MIA 20:10 → LAX 22:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:28	LAX 11:00	14%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 843 American Flight history →	MIA 08:35	LAX 11:02	15%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 3239 American	MIA 10:10	LAX 12:38	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	18%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	22%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	23%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	23%	9%	0.6%	57%
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	23%	9%	0.7%	56%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	25%	9%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 29m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326	7h 45m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON