Today: AA 3939 at 14:48 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–32%.

Safest bet today AA 3939 MIA 14:48 → MCI 17:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 670 MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 14:48	MCI 17:23	14%	5%	0.5%	91%
AA 2443 American	MIA 14:10	MCI 16:38	25%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 4925 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 15:30	MCI 17:50	29%	6%	0.1%	46%
AA 670 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	MCI 23:59	32%	10%	0.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON