Today: WN 2693 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–46%.

Safest bet today WN 2693 MIA 07:10 → MCO 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 17:38 → MCO 18:47 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2693 Southwest	MIA 07:10	MCO 08:20	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4086 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 05:25	MCO 06:30	5%	2%	0.4%	96%
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 06:41	MCO 07:51	6%	3%	0.4%	97%
AA 2090 American Flight history →	MIA 07:35	MCO 08:50	7%	4%	0.4%	90%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MIA 09:06	MCO 10:22	8%	4%	0.3%	88%
AA 1652 American	MIA 08:25	MCO 09:34	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MIA 13:40	MCO 14:59	24%	9%	0.4%	69%
AA 2109 American	MIA 13:43	MCO 14:53	28%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 3174 American	MIA 22:46	MCO 23:56	34%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1813 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:59	34%	11%	1.2%	50%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	MCO 17:52	35%	15%	1.2%	52%
AA 3265 American Flight history →	MIA 21:52	MCO 23:02	37%	13%	1.2%	62%
WN 2929 Southwest	MIA 18:10	MCO 19:20	37%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	MCO 20:38	37%	14%	1.0%	60%
AA 1700 American Flight history →	MIA 20:50	MCO 22:08	38%	13%	1.0%	56%
AA 1642 American	MIA 16:44	MCO 17:57	39%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MIA 17:34	MCO 18:58	41%	15%	1.0%	61%
AA 1610 American	MIA 17:38	MCO 18:47	46%	16%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON