Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1056 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1056 MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 458 MIA 21:22 → MSP 00:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1056 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:35	MSP 09:25	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 770 Delta	MIA 06:40	MSP 09:25	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2129 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:42	MSP 17:40	18%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 793 Delta	MIA 14:46	MSP 17:31	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 458 American Flight history →	MIA 21:22	MSP 00:09	22%	9%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON