Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3056 MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	11%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1431 American Flight history →	MIA 08:29	ORD 11:00	13%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 2491 American	MIA 05:13	ORD 07:36	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2910 American Flight history →	MIA 12:22	ORD 14:58	14%	6%	0.8%	73%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	15%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 12:57	ORD 15:18	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2323 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	ORD 00:26	18%	5%	0.9%	63%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 14:37	ORD 17:18	19%	6%	0.8%	67%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	20%	6%	0.6%	59%
AA 1881 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	ORD 23:30	20%	6%	0.9%	53%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 19:21	ORD 22:01	20%	7%	0.9%	49%
UA 2311 United Flight history →	MIA 17:32	ORD 20:13	22%	7%	0.6%	34%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	23%	7%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON