Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2853 MIA 16:10 → PHL 19:02 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2328 American Flight history →	MIA 07:45	PHL 10:43	14%	4%	1.3%	96%worse than usual
AA 2409 American	MIA 07:57	PHL 11:01	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	21%	5%	1.3%	86%
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:26	PHL 14:24	22%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:04	PHL 00:55	25%	8%	1.8%	76%
AA 1684 American Flight history →	MIA 13:45	PHL 16:43	28%	10%	1.2%	75%
F9 1204 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:21	PHL 00:27	30%	13%	1.8%	69%
AA 797 American Flight history →	MIA 15:00	PHL 17:57	30%	10%	0.9%	55%
AA 3061 American Flight history →	MIA 19:55	PHL 22:53	30%	10%	1.2%	70%
AA 2936 American	MIA 18:20	PHL 21:16	33%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1349 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	PHL 21:20	33%	10%	1.0%	56%
AA 2191 American	MIA 14:25	PHL 17:16	33%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 1871 American Flight history →	MIA 16:45	PHL 19:41	34%	11%	1.2%	65%
AA 2853 American	MIA 16:10	PHL 19:02	35%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON