Today: AA 2107 at 13:37 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet today AA 2107 MIA 13:37 → PHX 15:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1968 MIA 21:05 → PHX 22:47 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2107 American	MIA 13:37	PHX 15:35	18%	8%	0.1%	no record
AA 896 American Flight history →	MIA 13:40	PHX 15:24	18%	8%	0.1%	75%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 10:49	PHX 12:35	20%	7%	0.1%	77%
AA 2427 American	MIA 22:11	PHX 00:06	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2982 American Flight history →	MIA 17:40	PHX 19:28	26%	9%	0.1%	65%
AA 1968 American Flight history →	MIA 21:05	PHX 22:47	30%	6%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	6h 57m	91%	59%
American Details →	MIA 12:18 → DFW 14:39AA 3019	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:34 → PHX 15:59AA 554	6h 41m	76%	47%
American Details →	MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:28AA 2319	6h 58m	80%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON