Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:56 am at Miami)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 834 at 14:12 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops today


AA 834 American Flight history →	MIA 14:12	PIT 17:01	22%	9%	0.2%	66%
AA 1702 American Flight history →	MIA 20:59	PIT 23:48	37%	9%	0.8%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MIA 07:15 → STL 09:05WN 2931	1h 15m St Louis	STL 10:20 → PIT 13:07WN 568	5h 52m	98%	93%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic	7h 49m	93%	85%
American Details →	MIA 14:37 → ORD 17:18AA 2247	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 20:56 → PIT 23:37AA 4527 · flown by Republic	9h 00m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 42m	96%	84%
American Details →	MIA 09:55 → JFK 13:04AA 1052	3h 46m New York	JFK 16:50 → PIT 18:43AA 4734 · flown by Republic	8h 48m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	1h 54m New York	LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	96%	84%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 18m Houston	IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315	7h 08m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	7h 30m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624	52m Baltimore	BWI 22:22 → PIT 23:32WN 1111	4h 42m	67%	51%
American Details →	MIA 18:25 → PHL 21:20AA 1349	56m Philadelphia	PHL 22:16 → PIT 23:36AA 3195	5h 11m	69%	51%
American Details →	MIA 14:22 → LGA 17:29AA 716	56m New York	LGA 18:25 → PIT 20:08AA 4410 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	57%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON