Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4109 MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest MQ 3566 MIA 17:50 → PNS 18:47 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4109 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:08	PNS 23:59	18%	6%	1.2%	83%
AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:41	PNS 14:38	21%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 3743 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 17:51	PNS 18:48	24%	7%	1.1%	79%
MQ 3566 Envoy	MIA 17:50	PNS 18:47	25%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON