Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3782 MIA 16:13 → SAV 17:52 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest MQ 4166 MIA 17:54 → SAV 19:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3782 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 16:13	SAV 17:52	17%	5%	1.0%	58%
MQ 4082 Envoy	MIA 22:27	SAV 00:03	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:21	SAV 23:59	20%	4%	0.9%	75%
MQ 4166 Envoy	MIA 17:54	SAV 19:30	21%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON