Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 654 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 654 MIA 08:20 → SEA 11:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3252 MIA 20:35 → SEA 00:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 654 American Flight history →	MIA 08:20	SEA 11:56	19%	5%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	25%	8%	0.6%	60%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	28%	8%	0.7%	69%
AA 3252 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SEA 00:07	31%	9%	0.8%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 25m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 25m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MIA 07:15 → STL 09:05WN 2931	2h 35m St Louis	STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55WN 3981	9h 40m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON