Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2335 MIA 16:22 → SFO 19:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	MIA 07:20	SFO 10:24	15%	5%	0.8%	93%
AA 1934 American	MIA 07:06	SFO 10:01	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:36	SFO 19:27	26%	9%	0.6%	22%
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	30%	9%	0.8%	56%
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	30%	9%	0.7%	53%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	31%	9%	0.7%	33%
AA 2335 American	MIA 16:22	SFO 19:43	33%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	8h 08m	94%	78%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON