tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 40m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 1h 20m Houston HOU 08:05 → SJC 10:06WN 2125 7h 56m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 11:40 → SJC 14:32WN 3400 11h 12m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 37m Denver DEN 11:37 → SJC 13:25UA 1256 8h 48m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 14:50 → MDW 17:00WN 2930 3h 50m Chicago MDW 20:50 → SJC 23:30WN 2659 11h 40m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:21 → SJC 11:21AA 2046 8h 56m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:01 → DFW 09:09AA 1454 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:10 → SJC 14:08AA 2834 10h 07m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 36m Houston IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882 8h 33m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 50m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 53m 67% 56%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → SJC 22:14AA 364 8h 35m 67% 46%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 46m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 7h 43m 40% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON