tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via O'Hare, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 56m Chicago ORD 12:04 → SNA 14:43AA 661 11h 03m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:46 → SNA 11:13AA 1939 8h 48m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 19m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 06m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:36 → PHX 09:47AA 1983 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → SNA 12:46AA 2454 8h 10m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 1h 26m San Francisco SFO 12:29 → SNA 14:15UA 2441 9h 15m 98% 77%
FrontierDetails → MIA 06:00 → DEN 08:23F9 1279 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:33 → SNA 11:06F9 4371 8h 06m 91% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 9h 09m 66% 55%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 48m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 38m 68% 51%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 47m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 56m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON