Today: MQ 4228 at 14:12 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet today MQ 4228 MIA 14:12 → TPA 15:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1921 MIA 20:48 → TPA 21:57 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4228 Envoy	MIA 14:12	TPA 15:23	14%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2831 American Flight history →	MIA 12:00	TPA 13:14	16%	8%	0.2%	72%
AA 2041 American	MIA 12:37	TPA 13:47	17%	8%	0.2%	no record
MQ 4225 Envoy	MIA 18:17	TPA 19:42	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3573 Envoy	MIA 21:59	TPA 23:15	23%	6%	3.6%	no record
AA 2987 American Flight history →	MIA 15:41	TPA 16:53	25%	8%	0.4%	49%
AA 2130 American	MIA 17:45	TPA 18:58	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 3188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:09	TPA 23:15	39%	15%	1.2%	48%
AA 1714 American Flight history →	MIA 23:13	TPA 00:19	39%	12%	1.2%	71%worse than usual
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 20:48	TPA 21:57	44%	14%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON