tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:59 am at Miami)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 2025 at 20:47, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2025 American MIA 20:47 TYS 23:03 29% 16% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:57DL 1323 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 7h 01m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042 6h 39m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 45m Chicago ORD 17:58 → TYS 20:37UA 795 8h 07m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435 2h 53m Dulles IAD 18:46 → TYS 20:34UA 4914 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 24m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → TYS 20:08DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor 6h 02m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → TYS 23:01DL 5527 · flown by Endeavor 8h 19m 95% 67%
AmericanDetails → MIA 14:37 → ORD 17:18AA 2247 1h 51m Chicago ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest 7h 21m 86% 67%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 06m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TYS 21:41DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor 8h 03m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400 50m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → TYS 21:58AA 5909 · flown by Piedmont 4h 33m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON