Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1206 MKE 18:45 → ATL 22:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest DL 1246 MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	MKE 18:45	ATL 22:00	14%	4%	0.5%	73%
DL 2152 Delta Flight history →	MKE 16:14	ATL 19:25	16%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	MKE 14:59	ATL 18:06	17%	4%	0.5%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON