tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:20 am at Milwaukee)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4866 Southwest Flight history → MKE 06:00 AUS 08:40 12% 2% 0.2% 85%
WN 3229 Southwest MKE 08:50 AUS 11:48 20% 2% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942 3h 47m Denver DEN 10:37 → AUS 13:49WN 970 8h 34m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:25 → PHX 07:05WN 2954 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → AUS 13:52WN 3351 8h 27m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MKE 10:28 → ORD 11:38UA 5399 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Chicago ORD 13:30 → AUS 16:22UA 622 5h 54m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MKE 09:39 → MSP 10:57DL 4466 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:31 → AUS 17:13DL 2687 7h 34m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MKE 07:50 → ORD 09:00UA 4803 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 6h 51m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:21 → DFW 10:00AA 2621 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 7h 39m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Chicago ORD 13:44 → AUS 16:37UA 1211 7h 47m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → AUS 18:41DL 1612 5h 19m 67% 55%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:19UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 46m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 5h 03m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:55 → ORD 20:29AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935 5h 04m 59% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON