Today: WN 3042 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet today WN 3042 MKE 07:45 → BNA 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1369 MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3042 Southwest	MKE 07:45	BNA 09:26	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4598 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 07:40	BNA 09:10	5%	1%	0.2%	95%
WN 445 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 10:25	BNA 11:55	5%	2%	0.2%	90%
WN 2477 Southwest	MKE 10:20	BNA 12:01	6%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4945 Southwest	MKE 16:35	BNA 18:15	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1369 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 16:30	BNA 18:00	19%	5%	0.2%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON