Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1165 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1165 MKE 06:20 → BWI 09:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4281 MKE 18:45 → BWI 21:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1165 Southwest	MKE 06:20	BWI 09:24	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2936 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 07:00	BWI 09:50	6%	2%	0.5%	97%
WN 2679 Southwest	MKE 12:20	BWI 15:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2937 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 12:25	BWI 15:20	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 4281 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 18:45	BWI 21:40	16%	5%	0.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON