Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:51 pm at Milwaukee); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2846 American Flight history →	MKE 18:17	CLT 21:26	27%	9%	0.4%	66%
AA 3193 American	MKE 18:21	CLT 21:18	29%	9%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 45m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MKE 16:14 → ATL 19:25DL 2152	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 44m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MKE 16:47 → DTW 18:59DL 1343	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352	4h 10m	87%	72%
Southwest Details →	MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00WN 1369	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 20:50 → CLT 23:20WN 4518	5h 50m	98%	71%
United Details →	MKE 14:27 → ORD 15:38UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	6h 02m	92%	63%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	5h 58m	98%	62%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:00 → LGA 17:50DL 5613 · flown by Republic	1h 50m New York	LGA 19:40 → CLT 21:44DL 5705 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	83%	62%
American Details →	MKE 17:41 → DFW 20:17AA 869	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409	6h 18m	78%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953	50m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → CLT 21:44WN 4904	3h 29m	63%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON