Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 311 MKE 08:15 → DCA 11:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5286 MKE 13:04 → DCA 16:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 08:15	DCA 11:00	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:00	DCA 09:11	14%	5%	1.8%	84%
WN 2941 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 17:30	DCA 20:25	16%	7%	0.6%	43%
AA 5286 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 13:04	DCA 16:12	19%	9%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON