Today: WN 2942 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet today WN 2942 MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 5344 MKE 17:52 → DEN 19:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2942 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 05:15	DEN 06:50	3%	1%	0.1%	98%
WN 1658 Southwest	MKE 05:30	DEN 07:02	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1450 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 09:10	DEN 10:40	9%	2%	0.1%	95%
WN 2944 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 10:25	DEN 11:55	9%	2%	0.1%	77%
OO 5501 SkyWest	MKE 10:42	DEN 12:45	11%	7%	0.2%	no record
OO 6028 SkyWest	MKE 08:52	DEN 10:52	12%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 2945 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 13:50	DEN 15:20	14%	2%	0.4%	69%
UA 5558 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:16	DEN 10:05	14%	7%	0.2%	85%
UA 696 United Flight history →	MKE 14:35	DEN 16:21	15%	4%	0.5%	79%
WN 4849 Southwest	MKE 11:25	DEN 12:58	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 3885 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 18:35	DEN 20:20	15%	4%	0.5%	59%
UA 1969 United	MKE 14:41	DEN 16:30	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3051 Southwest	MKE 18:29	DEN 19:59	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 5544 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 17:46	DEN 19:45	25%	6%	0.7%	57%
OO 5344 SkyWest	MKE 17:52	DEN 19:28	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON