Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2135 MKE 12:09 → DFW 14:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 2136 MKE 18:40 → DFW 21:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2135 American Flight history →	MKE 12:09	DFW 14:46	17%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	MKE 12:18	DFW 14:58	17%	9%	0.6%	72%
AA 869 American Flight history →	MKE 17:40	DFW 20:17	21%	10%	0.7%	69%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MKE 18:40	DFW 21:17	26%	13%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON