Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5536 MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5373 MKE 08:00 → IAH 11:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5536 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:09	IAH 11:19	18%	8%	0.4%	76%
UA 5373 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:00	IAH 11:00	20%	8%	0.4%	86%
UA 6261 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MKE 17:56	IAH 20:55	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
UA 6254 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MKE 10:46	IAH 13:40	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON