Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:27 am at Milwaukee); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:39, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 09:39 → MSP 10:57DL 4466 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	6h 21m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 16:14 → ATL 19:25DL 2152	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	7h 36m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	7h 03m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 31m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	7h 10m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	5h 17m	90%	68%
American Details →	MKE 10:56 → CLT 14:02AA 1810	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	8h 10m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	MKE 11:35 → BOS 15:05DL 5614 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Boston	BOS 17:05 → JFK 18:42DL 5814 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	94%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON