Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2295 MKE 11:20 → LAS 13:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3053 MKE 19:35 → LAS 21:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2295 Southwest	MKE 11:20	LAS 13:07	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4659 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 11:45	LAS 13:30	12%	2%	0.2%	65%
WN 354 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 19:30	LAS 21:20	16%	5%	0.5%	58%
WN 3053 Southwest	MKE 19:35	LAS 21:21	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MKE 13:50 → DEN 15:20WN 2945	1h 09m Denver	DEN 16:29 → LAS 17:24WN 1638	5h 34m	90%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON