Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:54 am at Milwaukee)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3696 Southwest	MKE 13:05	MCI 14:44	13%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 1702 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 11:40	MCI 13:10	14%	3%	0.3%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MKE 18:55 → ORD 20:29AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 22:40 → MCI 00:22 +1AA 4745 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	MKE 17:50 → STL 19:10WN 4661	2h 40m St Louis	STL 21:50 → MCI 23:07WN 4964	5h 17m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	MKE 09:10 → DEN 10:40WN 1450	1h 41m Denver	DEN 12:21 → MCI 15:06WN 2543	5h 56m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 09:39 → MSP 10:57DL 4466 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613	5h 35m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 20:30 → MCI 22:05WN 1482	4h 50m	99%	82%
American Details →	MKE 19:21 → ORD 20:19AA 6507 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → MCI 00:19 +1AA 3695 · flown by Envoy	4h 58m	88%	79%
United Details →	MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561	5h 30m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:20 → MCI 16:48DL 1630	4h 41m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 10:55 → MCI 12:41UA 5997 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m	72%	57%
United Details →	MKE 19:23 → ORD 20:29UA 5653 · flown by SkyWest	56m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m	67%	52%
United Details →	MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:18UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest	47m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	6h 06m	61%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON